Europe's Record Run: Longest Monthly Winning Streak Since 2013

By EC Assets · Published · Updated

European equities are posting their longest monthly winning streak in over a decade. And most allocators are only now paying attention.

The STOXX 600 has risen for eight consecutive months, accumulating substantial gains and touching fresh all-time highs. The last time this happened was 2012-2013, during the Draghi era. But the drivers today are fundamentally different.

Back then, the rally was about removing existential risk. Today, it's additive: Germany's historic fiscal transformation, a continental defense spending supercycle, and the deepest capital rotation out of US equities in over two decades.

The numbers tell the story. According to Bloomberg, the STOXX 600 is near record levels while the S&P 500 has barely moved year-to-date. According to BofA's February Fund Manager Survey, overweight positioning in eurozone equities has nearly doubled since December. Non-US equity ETFs attracted record inflows in January, according to State Street.

But here's what many overlook: this rally has been driven primarily by multiple expansion and capital flows, not earnings delivery. European consensus earnings have historically been revised downward as each year progresses. The gap between bottom-up optimism and top-down reality remains wide.

At EC Assets, we focus on what the options market reveals about these regime shifts - because implied volatility often reprices structural change before the headlines do.

Momentum is powerful. But the margin for error narrows when everyone is positioned the same way.

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